Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.4¢

-44% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares1,606,236

Combined PnL$-4.5K

No1 trader

Total Value$222.08

Total Shares223

Combined PnL-$0.11

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$5.0K	$-4.5K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$490.35	$548.46	+$87.63	50% 1220-1231 (2451)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 99.7¢	$222.19	$222.08	-$0.11	45% 2313-2837 (5150)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$78.12	$35	-$43.12	56% 15513-12122 (27635)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$38.9	$17.43	-$21.47	52% 1154-1065 (2219)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.86	$1.73	-$2.13	15% 118-669 (787)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.51	$1.58	-$1.94	60% 7177-4733 (11910)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$1.06	-$1.31	24% 666-2082 (2748)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.24	$0.56	-$0.68	32% 2903-6073 (8976)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.96	$0.43	-$0.53	34% 103-196 (299)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$490.35

Value

$548.46

PnL

+$87.63

Record

50%

1220-1231 (2451)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$222.19

Value

$222.08

PnL

-$0.11

Record

45%

2313-2837 (5150)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.12

Value

$35

PnL

-$43.12

Record

56%

15513-12122 (27635)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.9

Value

$17.43

PnL

-$21.47

Record

52%

1154-1065 (2219)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.86

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$2.13

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$1.94

Record

60%

7177-4733 (11910)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.31

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.24

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.68

Record

32%

2903-6073 (8976)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.53

Record

34%

103-196 (299)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.