Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$-7.9K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-76% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares1,581,731

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.4M	$2.2K	$-7.4K	44% 577-748 (1325)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$212.1	$241.28	+$120.41	50% 1220-1232 (2452)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$9.61	$9.61	+$0	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
AN ancianoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$40.89	$8.97	-$31.92	52% 1154-1067 (2221)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$37.42	$7.28	-$30.14	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$19.17	$3.68	-$15.49	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yes	$3.31	$3.31	-$10.43	15% 118-669 (787)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$14.4	$2.76	-$11.63	25% 181-537 (718)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.51	$0.68	-$2.84	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$2.37	$0.45	-$1.91	24% 666-2082 (2748)
PL plainfolderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.82	$0.16	-$0.66	32% 2903-6253 (9156)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.48	$0.09	-$526.82	35% 104-196 (300)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.01	-$0.02	61% 670-428 (1098)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,438,575.59

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

44%

577-748 (1325)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.1

Value

$241.28

PnL

+$120.41

Record

50%

1220-1232 (2452)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

ancianoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.89

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$31.92

Record

52%

1154-1067 (2221)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.42

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$30.14

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.17

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$15.49

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$10.43

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.4

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$11.63

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$2.84

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.37

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$1.91

Record

24%

666-2082 (2748)

plainfolderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.66

Record

32%

2903-6253 (9156)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$526.82

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.02

Record

61%

670-428 (1098)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.