Al Hilal SFC vs. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 1st Half O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 66¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$443.86

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 65.5¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,155

Combined PnL-$591.53

Over4 traders

Total Value$224.48

Total Shares721

Combined PnL+$147.66

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 93¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$589.74	73% 2863-1078 (3941)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 7.3¢	$23.5	$110.65	+$87.16	53% 1052-943 (1995)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 7.2¢	$19.78	$95.12	+$75.34	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$14.64	$18.71	+$4.07	57% 12000-9088 (21088)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 82¢	$8.66	$6.91	-$1.74	55% 1290-1076 (2366)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 67¢	$2.03	$1.98	-$0.05	50% 35778-35246 (71024)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$18.9	—	-$18.9	47% 1123-1270 (2393)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,992.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$589.74

Record

73%

2863-1078 (3941)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$23.5

Value

$110.65

PnL

+$87.16

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.78

Value

$95.12

PnL

+$75.34

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.64

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$4.07

Record

57%

12000-9088 (21088)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$8.66

Value

$6.91

PnL

-$1.74

Record

55%

1290-1076 (2366)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

35778-35246 (71024)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.9

Value

—

PnL

-$18.9

Record

47%

1123-1270 (2393)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.