Monastir: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Luka Mikrut

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Luka Mikrut (23%) · Luka Mikrut at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Eliakim Coulibaly28¢Luka Mikrut72¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luka Mikrut

Consensus Traders

Luka Mikrut 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$22.98

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 72.5¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eliakim Coulibaly28%

Luka Mikrut73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luka Mikrut3 traders

Total Value$752.19

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL+$9.31

Eliakim Coulibaly10 traders

Total Value$377.43

Total Shares1,128

Combined PnL-$32.28

Luka Mikrut — 23%Eliakim Coulibaly — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Luka Mikrutavg 57¢	$489.11	$493.4	+$4.29	50% 3287-3240 (6527)
38 38791873984189	Luka Mikrutavg 70.7¢	$201.66	$201.41	-$0.24	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.1¢	$129.14	$130.46	+$1.32	30% 368-861 (1229)
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40.1¢	$93.88	$94.9	+$1.02
└ Luka Mikrut leg	Luka Mikrutavg 59¢	$35.26	$35.56	+$0.3
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40¢	$75.52	$79.9	+$4.38	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 40¢	$92.56	$63.64	-$28.92	31% 373-839 (1212)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 32¢	$150.8	$59.72	+$2.67	23% 112-368 (480)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Luka Mikrutavg 64.2¢	$52.12	$57.37	+$5.26	56% 3836-3008 (6844)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 38.5¢	$50.05	$50.05	+$0	22% 116-403 (519)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 32¢	$48	$41.25	-$6.75	39% 480-748 (1228)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 31.1¢	$125.04	$37.65	-$4.97	43% 109-146 (255)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 39.9¢	$20.91	$22.56	+$1.65	48% 654-705 (1359)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 38¢	$15.96	$16.17	+$0.21	49% 93-96 (189)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 35¢	$5.68	$5.11	-$0.57	30% 373-861 (1234)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.38	+$0.02	28% 151-392 (543)

6512395314597884

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$489.11

Value

$493.4

PnL

+$4.29

Record

50%

3287-3240 (6527)

38791873984189

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$201.66

Value

$201.41

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$129.14

Value

$130.46

PnL

+$1.32

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

Both legs:

Eliakim Coulibaly$93.8840.1¢+$1.02

Luka Mikrut$35.2659¢+$0.3

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$75.52

Value

$79.9

PnL

+$4.38

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$92.56

Value

$63.64

PnL

-$28.92

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

thestingsnakeCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$150.8

Value

$59.72

PnL

+$2.67

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$52.12

Value

$57.37

PnL

+$5.26

Record

56%

3836-3008 (6844)

babybellsCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$50.05

Value

$50.05

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

116-403 (519)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$48

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$6.75

Record

39%

480-748 (1228)

thirdt1meCTR

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$125.04

Value

$37.65

PnL

-$4.97

Record

43%

109-146 (255)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$20.91

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$1.65

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$15.96

Value

$16.17

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

93-96 (189)

VenusianCTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.57

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

151-392 (543)

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luka Mikrut wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.