Knoxville: Liam Draxl vs Petr Nesterov

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (10%) · Liam Draxl at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18

Liam Draxl77¢Petr Nesterov23¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liam Draxl

Consensus Traders

Liam Draxl 10%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$46.17

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl77%

Petr Nesterov24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liam Draxl1 trader

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares6,696

Combined PnL+$68.86

Petr Nesterov9 traders

Total Value$864.32

Total Shares3,647

Combined PnL-$22.68

Liam Draxl — 10%Petr Nesterov — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Liam Draxl. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPetr Nesterov 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetr Nesterov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petr Nesterov 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Liam Draxlavg 75.5¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$68.86	3% 7-200 (207)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Petr Nesterovavg 24¢	$354.64	$354.64	+$0	60% 435-296 (731)
VeryLucky888CTR	Petr Nesterovavg 24.8¢	$409.5	$218.55	-$25.35	51% 442-417 (859)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 23¢	$98.35	$98.35	+$0	30% 376-862 (1238)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 23¢	$88.77	$90.7	+$1.93	30% 372-863 (1235)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 24¢	$73.68	$73.68	+$0	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 24¢	$16.56	$16.56	+$0	37% 340-569 (909)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 22¢	$7.56	$8.25	+$0.69	38% 136-221 (357)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 25¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.1	32% 281-611 (892)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Petr Nesterovavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.2	+$0.15	31% 375-842 (1217)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Liam Draxl

Invested

$5,053.58

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$68.86

Record

7-200 (207)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$354.64

Value

$354.64

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

435-296 (731)

VeryLucky888CTR

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$409.5

Value

$218.55

PnL

-$25.35

Record

51%

442-417 (859)

VenusianCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$98.35

Value

$98.35

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

LimousinCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$88.77

Value

$90.7

PnL

+$1.93

Record

30%

372-863 (1235)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$73.68

Value

$73.68

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

sentrioCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$16.56

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$7.56

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.69

Record

38%

136-221 (357)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Petr Nesterov

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Liam Draxl. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPetr Nesterov 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedPetr Nesterov 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Petr Nesterov 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liam Draxl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.