BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Borna Gojo vs Ugo Humbert

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (90%) · Ugo Humbert at 67¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 18

Borna Gojo34¢Ugo Humbert66¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ugo Humbert

Consensus Traders

Ugo Humbert 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$47.68

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 66.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Borna Gojo34%

Ugo Humbert67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Humbert9 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares13,289

Combined PnL+$47.51

Borna Gojo1 trader

Total Value$3.69

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$0.17

Ugo Humbert — 90%Borna Gojo — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUgo Humbert 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Ugo Humbertavg 66.1¢	$5.5K	$4.0K	+$57.08	52% 441-414 (855)
FL Flaznorp	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
DA darkumbreon88	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$0	61% 921-592 (1513)
K5 k56	Ugo Humbertavg 67¢	$750	$738.81	-$11.19	1% 2-205 (207)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$264	$264	+$0	14% 139-833 (972)
SE sentrio	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$230.39	$232.13	+$1.75	37% 339-567 (906)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Borna Gojoavg 32¢	$55.24	$56.37	+$1.13	41% 256-376 (632)
└ Borna Gojo leg	Borna Gojoavg 32¢	$31.6	$33.08	+$1.48
└ Ugo Humbert leg	Ugo Humbertavg 67¢	$23.64	$23.29	-$0.35
EU Eulhunter<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 65.8¢	$38.84	$38.93	+$0.09	49% 93-96 (189)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 66.4¢	$35.85	$35.64	-$0.21	48% 654-705 (1359)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Borna Gojoavg 32¢	$3.52	$3.69	+$0.17	31% 373-839 (1212)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.3	+$0	31% 278-610 (888)

VeryLucky888

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$5,514.48

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$57.08

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

Flaznorp

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$1,782.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

darkumbreon88

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$1,753.21

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

921-592 (1513)

k56

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$750

Value

$738.81

PnL

-$11.19

Record

2-205 (207)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$264

Value

$264

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

139-833 (972)

sentrio

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$230.39

Value

$232.13

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

339-567 (906)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$55.24

Value

$56.37

PnL

+$1.13

Record

41%

256-376 (632)

Both legs:

Borna Gojo$31.632¢+$1.48

Ugo Humbert$23.6467¢-$0.35

Eulhunter<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$38.84

Value

$38.93

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

93-96 (189)

Pan9X<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$35.85

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Borna Gojo

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

373-839 (1212)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

278-610 (888)

Research grade

NeutralUgo Humbert at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUgo Humbert 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Humbert wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.