Bratislava 2: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Zsombor Piros

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Zsombor Piros (56%) · Zsombor Piros at 82¢ · $890 held · ends Nov 11

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg19¢Zsombor Piros81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zsombor Piros

Consensus Traders

Zsombor Piros 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$890.09

Combined PnL

-$35.81

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 81.5¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg19%

Zsombor Piros82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zsombor Piros5 traders

Total Value$509.64

Total Shares725

Combined PnL+$6.73

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg4 traders

Total Value$231.63

Total Shares659

Combined PnL-$42.54

Zsombor Piros — 56%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Zsombor Pirosavg 66.1¢	$163.36	$169.2	+$5.84	51% 6277-6028 (12305)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 42.2¢	$156.6	$165.1	+$8.5	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 48.2¢	$145.52	$148.82	+$3.31	61% 14035-9040 (23075)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 48.2¢	$112.25	$115.22	+$2.97
└ Zsombor Piros leg	Zsombor Pirosavg 50¢	$33.27	$33.6	+$0.33
VE Venusian	Zsombor Pirosavg 58.2¢	$144.82	$143.91	-$0.91	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
38 38791873984189<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 51.2¢	$95.06	$91.82	-$3.24	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 68¢	$80.98	$82.45	+$1.47	52% 736-673 (1409)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 39.5¢	$97.39	$45.64	-$51.75	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Zsombor Pirosavg 66.7¢	$18.69	$22.26	+$3.57	57% 19072-14109 (33181)
RN1CTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 49¢	$18.13	$18.69	+$0.55	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
poshposhCTR<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 47¢	$2.06	$2.21	+$0.15	57% 12266-9326 (21592)

tradecraft

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$163.36

Value

$169.2

PnL

+$5.84

Record

51%

6277-6028 (12305)

MadridTimeCTR

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$156.6

Value

$165.1

PnL

+$8.5

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$145.52

Value

$148.82

PnL

+$3.31

Record

61%

14035-9040 (23075)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$112.2548.2¢+$2.97

Zsombor Piros$33.2750¢+$0.33

Venusian

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$144.82

Value

$143.91

PnL

-$0.91

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

38791873984189<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$95.06

Value

$91.82

PnL

-$3.24

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

1lovejump<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$80.98

Value

$82.45

PnL

+$1.47

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$97.39

Value

$45.64

PnL

-$51.75

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

BillBenter2026<$100

Zsombor Piros

Invested

$18.69

Value

$22.26

PnL

+$3.57

Record

57%

19072-14109 (33181)

RN1CTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

poshposhCTR<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

Research grade

NeutralZsombor Piros at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zsombor Piros

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zsombor Piros wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.