Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yanis Ghazouani Durand, while the market favors Calvin Hemery (84%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Orleans: Calvin Hemery vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yanis Ghazouani Durand (75%) · Yanis Ghazouani Durand at 16¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Calvin Hemery84¢Yanis Ghazouani Durand16¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Consensus Traders

Yanis Ghazouani Durand 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 16¢

-57% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYanis Ghazouani Durand at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Calvin Hemery 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Calvin Hemery84%

Yanis Ghazouani Durand16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yanis Ghazouani Durand9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares15,290

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Calvin Hemery3 traders

Total Value$32.41

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$4.43

Yanis Ghazouani Durand — 75%Calvin Hemery — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yanis Ghazouani Durand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYanis Ghazouani Durand 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yanis Ghazouani Durand 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 37¢	$2.6K	$1.1K	$-1.5K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
RN1CTR	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 36.7¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	$-1.4K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 36.4¢	$465.42	$198.43	-$266.99	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 35.3¢	$129.58	$74.77	-$54.81	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Yanis Ghazouani Durand leg	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 35.3¢	$108.77	$47.72	-$61.05
└ Calvin Hemery leg	Calvin Hemeryavg 65¢	$20.81	$27.05	+$6.24
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 39¢	$54.33	$49.5	-$4.83	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 37.4¢	$50.79	$48.16	-$2.63	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 77.8¢	$19.41	$21.08	+$1.67	60% 4594-3102 (7696)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 37¢	$34.28	$12.17	-$0.51	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 30¢	$9.9	$11.72	+$1.82	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 34.4¢	$7.49	$7.72	+$0.23	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
TRCM<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 65¢	$5.47	$7.11	+$1.64	55% 4121-3322 (7443)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yanis Ghazouani Durandavg 36¢	$11.69	$5.03	-$6.66	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Calvin Hemeryavg 62¢	$3.1	$4.23	+$1.12	53% 6777-5930 (12707)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$2,578.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

RN1CTR

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$2,441.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189CTR

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$465.42

Value

$198.43

PnL

-$266.99

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$129.58

Value

$74.77

PnL

-$54.81

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Yanis Ghazouani Durand$108.7735.3¢-$61.05

Calvin Hemery$20.8165¢+$6.24

LimousinCTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$54.33

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$4.83

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$50.79

Value

$48.16

PnL

-$2.63

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

thestingsnake<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$19.41

Value

$21.08

PnL

+$1.67

Record

60%

4594-3102 (7696)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$34.28

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$9.9

Value

$11.72

PnL

+$1.82

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$7.49

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

TRCM<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$5.47

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$1.64

Record

55%

4121-3322 (7443)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

Invested

$11.69

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$6.66

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

Eulhunter<$100

Calvin Hemery

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

6777-5930 (12707)

Research grade

AvoidYanis Ghazouani Durand at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Calvin Hemery 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yanis Ghazouani Durand. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYanis Ghazouani Durand 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yanis Ghazouani Durand 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yanis Ghazouani Durand wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.