Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Santiago De la Fuente, while the market favors Carlos Sanchez Jover (65%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Santiago De la Fuente

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Santiago De la Fuente (70%) · Santiago De la Fuente at 36¢ · $577 held · ends Nov 16

Carlos Sanchez Jover65¢Santiago De la Fuente35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Santiago De la Fuente

Consensus Traders

Santiago De la Fuente 70%

Total Value

$577.02

Combined PnL

$180.02

Smart Money Entry

20.8¢ → 35.5¢

+71% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSantiago De la Fuente at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Carlos Sanchez Jover 65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carlos Sanchez Jover65%

Santiago De la Fuente36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Santiago De la Fuente7 traders

Total Value$452.85

Total Shares1,853

Combined PnL+$68.25

Carlos Sanchez Jover3 traders

Total Value$124.16

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$111.77

Santiago De la Fuente — 70%Carlos Sanchez Jover — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 21.7¢	$153.05	$229.67	+$76.62	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
FL Flaznorp	Carlos Sanchez Jover	$109.65	$109.65	+$111.26	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 23¢	$501.43	$95.27	-$20.06	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 18¢	$77.04	$85.6	+$8.56	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
RN1CTR	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 18¢	$181.67	$34.52	+$1.82	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 75¢	$10.21	$10.54	+$0.33	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 18¢	$4.5	$5.76	+$1.27	46% 31018-36480 (67498)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Carlos Sanchez Joveravg 76¢	$3.8	$3.98	+$0.18	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
TRCMCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.53	+$0.07	55% 4142-3335 (7477)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 21¢	$2.53	$0.51	-$0.03	52% 6205-5726 (11931)

thestingsnakeCTR

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$153.05

Value

$229.67

PnL

+$76.62

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

Flaznorp

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$109.65

Value

$109.65

PnL

+$111.26

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$501.43

Value

$95.27

PnL

-$20.06

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$77.04

Value

$85.6

PnL

+$8.56

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

RN1CTR

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$181.67

Value

$34.52

PnL

+$1.82

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$1.27

Record

46%

31018-36480 (67498)

Eulhunter<$100

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

TRCMCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$2.53

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Research grade

NeutralSantiago De la Fuente at 36%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Carlos Sanchez Jover 65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Santiago De la Fuente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.