Knoxville: Daniel Milavsky vs Kenta Miyoshi

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Milavsky (44%) · Daniel Milavsky at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Daniel Milavsky63¢Kenta Miyoshi37¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniel Milavsky

Consensus Traders

Daniel Milavsky 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$18.8

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 63¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Daniel Milavsky63%

Kenta Miyoshi37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Daniel Milavsky4 traders

Total Value$584.12

Total Shares710

Combined PnL-$33.32

Kenta Miyoshi5 traders

Total Value$282.53

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL+$14.52

Daniel Milavsky — 44%Kenta Miyoshi — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Daniel Milavskyavg 75.5¢	$419.18	$361.29	-$33.74	—
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 83¢	$232.07	$232.03	-$0.04	—
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 83¢	$166	$164	-$2
└ Kenta Miyoshi leg	Kenta Miyoshiavg 17.5¢	$66.07	$68.03	+$1.96
VE Venusian	Daniel Milavskyavg 77¢	$211.75	$213.13	+$1.38	—
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Kenta Miyoshiavg 23¢	$143.75	$140.63	-$3.13	—
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 23¢	$91.05	$94.13	+$3.08	—
└ Kenta Miyoshi leg	Kenta Miyoshiavg 23¢	$50.6	$49.5	-$1.1
└ Daniel Milavsky leg	Daniel Milavskyavg 70.2¢	$40.45	$44.63	+$4.18
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 27¢	$44.55	$67.65	+$23.1	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 20¢	$51	$49.73	-$1.27	—
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 26¢	$27.53	$23.85	-$3.68	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 80¢	$5.4	$5	-$0.4	—
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Daniel Milavskyavg 66¢	$5.26	$4.7	-$0.56	—
RN1CTR<$100	Kenta Miyoshiavg 32¢	$1.18	$0.68	-$0.5	—

38791873984189

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$419.18

Value

$361.29

PnL

-$33.74

Record

—

MadridTimeARB<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$232.07

Value

$232.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

—

Both legs:

Daniel Milavsky$16683¢-$2

Kenta Miyoshi$66.0717.5¢+$1.96

Venusian

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$211.75

Value

$213.13

PnL

+$1.38

Record

—

SchruteBucksCTR

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$143.75

Value

$140.63

PnL

-$3.13

Record

—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$91.05

Value

$94.13

PnL

+$3.08

Record

—

Both legs:

Kenta Miyoshi$50.623¢-$1.1

Daniel Milavsky$40.4570.2¢+$4.18

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$44.55

Value

$67.65

PnL

+$23.1

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$51

Value

$49.73

PnL

-$1.27

Record

—

EulhunterCTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$27.53

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$3.68

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$5.4

Value

PnL

-$0.4

Record

—

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Daniel Milavsky

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.56

Record

—

RN1CTR<$100

Kenta Miyoshi

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDaniel Milavsky at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Daniel Milavsky

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniel Milavsky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.