Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 10?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 10

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$134.07

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 98.7¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares17,698

Combined PnL+$129.31

No1 trader

Total Value$14

Total Shares280

Combined PnL+$4.76

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 94.7¢	$8.9K	$9.0K	+$106.17	61% 38-24 (62)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 93¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$24.99	— 1-1 (2)
EA Eager47259	Yesavg 95.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.11	40% 29-44 (73)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616	Yesavg 97.1¢	$876.4	$869.18	-$7.22	— 3-2 (5)
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 95¢	$760	$748	-$12	0% 0-145 (145)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 94.8¢	$596.49	$604.16	+$7.67	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$9.24	$14	+$4.76	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 97.7¢	$9.74	$9.32	-$0.42	— 12-2 (14)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$8,858.9

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$106.17

Record

61%

38-24 (62)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$4,648.68

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$24.99

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Eager47259

Yes

Invested

$1,281.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.11

Record

40%

29-44 (73)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616

Yes

Invested

$876.4

Value

$869.18

PnL

-$7.22

Record

—

3-2 (5)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$760

Value

$748

PnL

-$12

Record

0-145 (145)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$596.49

Value

$604.16

PnL

+$7.67

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$9.24

Value

$14

PnL

+$4.76

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.74

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$0.42

Record

—

12-2 (14)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

60h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.