Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2AM ET

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 63¢ · $957 held · ends Nov 2

Up38¢Down62¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$957.33

Combined PnL

$37.61

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 62.5¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up38%

Down63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$330.24

Total Shares588

Combined PnL+$42.54

Up3 traders

Total Value$95.85

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$4.94

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$444.13	$423.9	-$20.23	67% 100156-48566 (148722)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$258.29	$311.41	+$53.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$185.83	$112.49	-$73.34
38 38791873984189	Downavg 47.9¢	$158.52	$165.33	+$6.81	47% 12911-14497 (27408)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 50.5¢	$111.45	$146.72	+$35.27	57% 6801-5043 (11844)
PB PBot-6ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$106.27	$107.35	+$1.08	58% 51416-37505 (88921)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$52.77	$53.85	+$1.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$53.5	$53.5	+$0
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$90.62	$85.73	-$4.89	45% 6381-7956 (14337)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$17.72	$18.18	+$0.46	52% 8686-8153 (16839)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.61	$5.61	+$0	58% 38684-27742 (66426)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$4.56	$4.51	-$0.05	12% 18352-133043 (151395)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$444.13

Value

$423.9

PnL

-$20.23

Record

67%

100156-48566 (148722)

Both legs:

Down$258.2951.8¢+$53.12

Up$185.8362¢-$73.34

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$158.52

Value

$165.33

PnL

+$6.81

Record

47%

12911-14497 (27408)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$111.45

Value

$146.72

PnL

+$35.27

Record

57%

6801-5043 (11844)

PBot-6ARB<$100

Invested

$106.27

Value

$107.35

PnL

+$1.08

Record

58%

51416-37505 (88921)

Both legs:

Down$52.7749¢+$1.08

Up$53.550¢+$0

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$90.62

Value

$85.73

PnL

-$4.89

Record

45%

6381-7956 (14337)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$17.72

Value

$18.18

PnL

+$0.46

Record

52%

8686-8153 (16839)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

38684-27742 (66426)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$0.05

Record

12%

18352-133043 (151395)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.1%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.