Consensus PnL $107K · win rate 60% (31067–20742, n=51809) · PM monthly #361 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$106.9K
Record
31067W / 20742L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 51809 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1143
Source
PM monthly #361
Trades
782
Markets
66,522
Volume
$7.3M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 12 on the consensus side (92%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $7.8K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $5.2K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $4.0K · now 81¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $2.9K · now 89¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 74¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 68¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (60% of 60)
- Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Yes $981 · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
Specialties
14,511 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 61¢- Crypto
+39 pts
side won 100% of 14493 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +28%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 99% of 471)
- 30–50¢: 45%(won 100% of 6543)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 100% of 3021)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 100% of 4476)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.