Consensus PnL $195K · win rate 50% (28285–27769, n=56054) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$195.4K
Record
28285W / 27769L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 56054 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1725
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
117
Markets
88,885
Volume
$6.6M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 10 on the consensus side (70%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ETDown $157 · now 100¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ETDown $49 · now 100¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (61% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ETDown $24 · now 50¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETUp $20 · now 0¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ETUp $16 · now 100¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (54% of 26)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ETDown $14 · now 0¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Up)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ETDown $10 · now 100¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (73% of 26)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ETDown $10 · now 100¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (43% of 23)
Specialties
26,665 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 51¢- Crypto
+34 pts
side won 85% of 26665 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 96% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 64%(won 81% of 17193)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 89% of 7620)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 1783)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.