Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Up32¢Down68¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$68.02

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 68.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up32%

Down69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,547

Combined PnL-$91.21

Up4 traders

Total Value$204.42

Total Shares804

Combined PnL+$23.19

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 75.6¢	$803.9	$688.63	-$115.27	67% 100018-48408 (148426)
LO Loser12	Downavg 47.7¢	$294	$308.4	+$14.4	48% 11-12 (23)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 78.7¢	$126.96	$125.21	-$1.75	57% 6792-5033 (11825)
TH thismonthCTR	Upavg 22.3¢	$92.67	$110.21	+$17.54	34% 597-1159 (1756)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Upavg 22.2¢	$75.61	$73.08	-$2.53	45% 221-274 (495)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$19.41	$30.82	+$11.41	51% 8591-8091 (16682)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$8.91	$16.5	+$7.59	12% 18343-133025 (151368)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 26.6¢	$4.04	$4.62	+$0.58	51% 20447-19516 (39963)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$803.9

Value

$688.63

PnL

-$115.27

Record

67%

100018-48408 (148426)

Loser12

Down

Invested

$294

Value

$308.4

PnL

+$14.4

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$126.96

Value

$125.21

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

6792-5033 (11825)

thismonthCTR

Invested

$92.67

Value

$110.21

PnL

+$17.54

Record

34%

597-1159 (1756)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$75.61

Value

$73.08

PnL

-$2.53

Record

45%

221-274 (495)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$19.41

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$11.41

Record

51%

8591-8091 (16682)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$8.91

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$7.59

Record

12%

18343-133025 (151368)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.58

Record

51%

20447-19516 (39963)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.