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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11PM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$985.53

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,542

Combined PnL-$987.53

Down1 trader

Total Value$4.07

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$1.99

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$118.32	67% 100018-48408 (148426)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$562.98	—	-$562.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$444.66
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$551.66	$674.83	+$123.17	57% 6792-5033 (11825)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20¢	$156.39	—	-$156.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$395.27	$674.83	+$279.56
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Upavg 40.8¢	$341.29	—	-$341.29	12% 18343-133025 (151368)
LO Loser12CTR	Upavg 26.6¢	$206	—	-$206	48% 11-12 (23)
AL almachCTR	Upavg 42.6¢	$201.78	—	-$201.78	55% 48947-40461 (89408)
MO mo-moneyCTR	Upavg 46.6¢	$141.71	—	-$141.71	55% 50993-41568 (92561)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 44.4¢	$84.4	—	-$84.4	55% 50296-40452 (90748)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 29.7¢	$9.45	—	-$9.45	51% 20447-19516 (39963)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 18.1¢	$2.9	—	-$2.9	51% 8591-8091 (16682)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.08	$4.07	+$1.99	58% 51405-37500 (88905)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$1,564.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$118.32

Record

67%

100018-48408 (148426)

Both legs:

Up$562.9842.3¢-$562.98

Down$1,001.2569.2¢+$444.66

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$551.66

Value

$674.83

PnL

+$123.17

Record

57%

6792-5033 (11825)

Both legs:

Up$156.3920¢-$156.39

Down$395.2758.6¢+$279.56

HsilverbasherCTR

Invested

$341.29

Value

—

PnL

-$341.29

Record

12%

18343-133025 (151368)

Invested

$206

Value

—

PnL

-$206

Record

48%

11-12 (23)

Invested

$201.78

Value

—

PnL

-$201.78

Record

55%

48947-40461 (89408)

Invested

$141.71

Value

—

PnL

-$141.71

Record

55%

50993-41568 (92561)

Invested

$84.4

Value

—

PnL

-$84.4

Record

55%

50296-40452 (90748)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$9.45

Value

—

PnL

-$9.45

Record

51%

20447-19516 (39963)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

—

PnL

-$2.9

Record

51%

8591-8091 (16682)

Invested

$2.08

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$1.99

Record

58%

51405-37500 (88905)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 8 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x768f60eb...b7a2f4

Slug

bitcoin-up-or-down-november-1-2026-11pm-et

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

peepeepoopoo24

Arbitrage — excluded

Hsilverbasher

Up — $0

Loser12

Up — $0

almach

Up — $0

mo-money

Up — $0

bosona

Up — $0

devonpoll

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

PBot-6

Down — $4.07

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