Will CDT Real Oruro win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 53¢ · $861 held · ends Nov 7

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$861.49

Combined PnL

-$66.49

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 53¢

-25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$785.65

Total Shares1,148

Combined PnL-$70.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$75.84

Total Shares205

Combined PnL+$4.05

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 69.4¢	$363.04	$341.08	-$21.96	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
VE Venusian	Noavg 71.1¢	$179.36	$163.45	-$15.91	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 73¢	$126.2	$108.9	-$17.3	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 72¢	$114.24	$99.92	-$11.1	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$69.53	$73.25	+$3.72	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 71¢	$42.7	$38.71	-$3.99	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 64¢	$27.72	$27.29	-$0.43	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.3	$6.3	+$0.15	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.8¢	$2.25	$2.59	+$0.34	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

Flaznorp

Invested

$363.04

Value

$341.08

PnL

-$21.96

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Venusian

Invested

$179.36

Value

$163.45

PnL

-$15.91

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

MadridTime

Invested

$126.2

Value

$108.9

PnL

-$17.3

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadox

Invested

$114.24

Value

$99.92

PnL

-$11.1

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.53

Value

$73.25

PnL

+$3.72

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$38.71

PnL

-$3.99

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$27.72

Value

$27.29

PnL

-$0.43

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.