Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-11-04?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$14.5K
-$121.97
67.8¢ → 67.5¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dv-pm | Noavg 67¢ | $7.5K | $5.1K | +$37.74 | 49% 3293-3423 (6716) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 69.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.7K | -$83.67 | 52% 1146-1041 (2187) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 68.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$20.2 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 67.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$17.43 | 50% 27765-27630 (55395) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $758.59 | $748.89 | -$7.71 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 67.8¢ | $670.18 | $662.37 | -$7.81 | 53% 16517-14663 (31180) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 67.9¢ | $617.1 | $613.23 | -$3.87 | 40% 1343-2035 (3378) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 68¢ | $604.83 | $595.94 | -$8.89 | 39% 1338-2112 (3450) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 67.7¢ | $400.79 | $396.6 | -$4.19 | 50% 25481-25189 (50670) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 68¢ | $369.41 | $363.98 | -$5.43 | 49% 14323-15001 (29324) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $16.24 | $15.75 | -$0.49 | 51% 1093-1042 (2135) |
Invested
$7,546
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$37.74
Record
49%
3293-3423 (6716)
Invested
$2,781.43
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$83.67
Record
52%
1146-1041 (2187)
Invested
$2,072.96
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$20.2
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Invested
$1,252.73
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$17.43
Record
50%
27765-27630 (55395)
VeryLucky888Invested
$758.59
Value
$748.89
PnL
-$7.71
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$670.18
Value
$662.37
PnL
-$7.81
Record
53%
16517-14663 (31180)
Invested
$617.1
Value
$613.23
PnL
-$3.87
Record
40%
1343-2035 (3378)
Invested
$604.83
Value
$595.94
PnL
-$8.89
Record
39%
1338-2112 (3450)
Invested
$400.79
Value
$396.6
PnL
-$4.19
Record
50%
25481-25189 (50670)
Invested
$369.41
Value
$363.98
PnL
-$5.43
Record
49%
14323-15001 (29324)
Invested
$16.24
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
1093-1042 (2135)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.