Londrina EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 66¢ · $719 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$719.38
$109.25
36.3¢ → 66¢
+82% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Underavg 32.5¢ | $125.65 | $191.25 | +$65.61 | 31% 389-859 (1248) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 71¢ | $131.31 | $132.43 | +$1.12 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 48.6¢ | $116.56 | $110.38 | -$6.17 | 57% 4041-3054 (7095) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.6¢ | $59.16 | $74.28 | +$15.12 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 62¢ | $57.4 | $36.1 | -$21.29 | |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 40.6¢ | $73.84 | $90.12 | +$16.29 | 30% 385-880 (1265) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 34.2¢ | $67.46 | $87.74 | +$20.28 | 30% 384-884 (1268) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 45.4¢ | $54.06 | $58.9 | +$4.84 | 31% 394-877 (1271) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 69¢ | $40.33 | $41.5 | +$1.17 | 52% 472-438 (910) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.65 | -$0.25 | 45% 240-290 (530) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.4 | +$0.2 | 45% 267-323 (590) |
Invested
$125.65
Value
$191.25
PnL
+$65.61
Record
31%
389-859 (1248)
Invested
$131.31
Value
$132.43
PnL
+$1.12
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$116.56
Value
$110.38
PnL
-$6.17
Record
57%
4041-3054 (7095)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.84
Value
$90.12
PnL
+$16.29
Record
30%
385-880 (1265)
Invested
$67.46
Value
$87.74
PnL
+$20.28
Record
30%
384-884 (1268)
Invested
$54.06
Value
$58.9
PnL
+$4.84
Record
31%
394-877 (1271)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$40.33
Value
$41.5
PnL
+$1.17
Record
52%
472-438 (910)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.25
Record
45%
240-290 (530)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
45%
267-323 (590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.