Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to Score
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 48¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 64%
$10.4K
$-2.7K
65.3¢ → 47.5¢
-27% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 65.7¢ | $11.5K | $9.0K | $-2.5K | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $502 | $388 | -$114 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 65¢ | $537.26 | $294.37 | -$110.59 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $236 | $294 | +$58 | 56% 8753-6943 (15696) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 36.1¢ | $107.59 | $138.45 | +$30.86 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 42¢ | $110.46 | $128.87 | +$18.41 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $210.23 | $87.48 | -$43.76 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 59.4¢ | $84.24 | $83.18 | -$1.06 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $36.08 | $40.92 | +$4.84 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $7.92 | $8.37 | +$0.45 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $7.94 | $7.78 | -$0.15 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
Invested
$11,495.34
Value
$9.0K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1CTRInvested
$502
Value
$388
PnL
-$114
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$537.26
Value
$294.37
PnL
-$110.59
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$236
Value
$294
PnL
+$58
Record
56%
8753-6943 (15696)
Invested
$107.59
Value
$138.45
PnL
+$30.86
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$110.46
Value
$128.87
PnL
+$18.41
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$210.23
Value
$87.48
PnL
-$43.76
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$84.24
Value
$83.18
PnL
-$1.06
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$40.92
PnL
+$4.84
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$0.45
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$7.94
Value
$7.78
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.