1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 92¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$6.0K
$502.94
82.8¢ → 91.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83¢ | $3.4K | $3.2K | -$141.72 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR | Overavg 17¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$600 | 32% 742-1577 (2319) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 82¢ | $908.21 | $1.0K | +$42.41 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $82 | $78 | +$0.5 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $49.98 | $50.86 | +$0.88 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $5.8 | $6.6 | +$0.8 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $2.49 | $2.51 | +$0.02 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
MI MinevaJCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $1.43 | $1.49 | +$0.06 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
Invested
$3,360.99
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$141.72
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$600
Record
32%
742-1577 (2319)
Invested
$908.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$42.41
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$82
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.5
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$49.98
Value
$50.86
PnL
+$0.88
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0.8
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.49
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.