Consensus PnL -$180K · win rate 33% (823–1693, n=2516) · was PM monthly #746 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-180.4K
Record
823W / 1693L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 2516 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2168
Source
PM monthly #746
Trades
1,596
Markets
2,724
Volume
$6.1M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 9 on the consensus side (56%)- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $19K · now 73¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $13K · now 72¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $7.6K · now 17¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Over $2.8K · now 100¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (50% of 32)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $1.4K · now 16¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Over $930 · now 27¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Under)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5Over $480 · now 42¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (Under)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Over $208 · now 50¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
1,800 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 37¢- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 54% of 1265 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +15%
- NHL
+10 pts
side won 56% of 302 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 47% of 32 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 17% of 47 at an average 32¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI −16%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 23% of 625)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 56% of 680)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 73% of 480)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 93% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.