Brown Bears vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lehigh Mountain Hawks (58%) · Lehigh Mountain Hawks at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
12
Lehigh Mountain Hawks 58%
$3.5K
-$118.72
71.9¢ → 60¢
-16% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidLehigh Mountain Hawks at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lehigh Mountain Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 73¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$168.61 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
VE VenusianCTR | Brown Bearsavg 26.5¢ | $605 | $661.31 | +$56.31 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
 nigiri99 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 68¢ | $433.11 | $423.61 | -$9.5 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
38 38791873984189 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 71¢ | $261.97 | $260.15 | -$1.82 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Brown Bearsavg 31.5¢ | $230.55 | $248 | +$17.45 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Brown Bearsavg 28.4¢ | $231.69 | $236.88 | +$5.19 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Brown Bearsavg 30¢ | $194.43 | $200.91 | +$6.48 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 75¢ | $186.12 | $163.79 | -$22.33 | 57% 17052-13027 (30079) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 65.7¢ | $39.8 | $40.26 | +$0.46 | 54% 19973-16852 (36825) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 74.1¢ | $24.92 | $22.52 | -$2.4 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Lehigh Mountain Hawksavg 67¢ | $6.09 | $6.05 | -$0.05 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Brown Bearsavg 32¢ | $2.24 | $2.35 | +$0.11 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
RN1Invested
$1,443.83
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$168.61
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$605
Value
$661.31
PnL
+$56.31
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
nigiri99Invested
$433.11
Value
$423.61
PnL
-$9.5
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$261.97
Value
$260.15
PnL
-$1.82
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$230.55
Value
$248
PnL
+$17.45
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$231.69
Value
$236.88
PnL
+$5.19
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$194.43
Value
$200.91
PnL
+$6.48
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$186.12
Value
$163.79
PnL
-$22.33
Record
57%
17052-13027 (30079)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$40.26
PnL
+$0.46
Record
54%
19973-16852 (36825)
Invested
$24.92
Value
$22.52
PnL
-$2.4
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$6.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $1.3K
Venusian
CTRBrown Bears — $661.31
nigiri99
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $423.61
38791873984189
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $260.15
Flaznorp
CTRBrown Bears — $248
MadridTime
CTRBrown Bears — $236.88
LightParadox
CTRBrown Bears — $200.91
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $163.79
HomeRunHazard
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $40.26
Pan9X
Lehigh Mountain Hawks — $22.52