Delaware State Hornets vs. Georgetown Hoyas

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Georgetown Hoyas (70%) · Georgetown Hoyas at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Delaware State Hornets7¢Georgetown Hoyas93¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgetown Hoyas

Consensus Traders

Georgetown Hoyas 70%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$63.23

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 93.3¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorgetown Hoyas at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgetown Hoyas

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Delaware State Hornets7%

Georgetown Hoyas93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgetown Hoyas7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,619

Combined PnL-$118.1

Delaware State Hornets3 traders

Total Value$211.33

Total Shares1,259

Combined PnL+$181.33

Georgetown Hoyas — 70%Delaware State Hornets — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Georgetown Hoyas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgetown Hoyas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgetown Hoyas 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgetown Hoyasavg 92.5¢	$596.59	$614.52	+$17.94	56% 488-383 (871)
FL Flaznorp	Georgetown Hoyasavg 98.8¢	$680.41	$520.64	-$159.77	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189	Georgetown Hoyasavg 91.1¢	$311.24	$186.01	+$12.05	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Delaware State Hornetsavg 1.2¢	$8.92	$177	+$168.08	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X	Georgetown Hoyasavg 86¢	$131.21	$64.82	+$11.29	49% 443-470 (913)
dips.CTR<$100	Delaware State Hornetsavg 4¢	$20.38	$33.66	+$13.28	42% 230-315 (545)
RN1<$100	Georgetown Hoyasavg 75.5¢	$11.88	$11.9	+$0.02	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Georgetown Hoyasavg 84.7¢	$5.93	$6.3	+$0.37	56% 708-556 (1264)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Georgetown Hoyasavg 89.9¢	$5.92	$5.92	+$0.01	3% 11-422 (433)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Delaware State Hornetsavg 13.6¢	$0.69	$0.67	-$0.03	53% 5511-4919 (10430)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$596.59

Value

$614.52

PnL

+$17.94

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Flaznorp

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$680.41

Value

$520.64

PnL

-$159.77

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$311.24

Value

$186.01

PnL

+$12.05

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBallCTR

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$8.92

Value

$177

PnL

+$168.08

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$131.21

Value

$64.82

PnL

+$11.29

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

dips.CTR<$100

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$20.38

Value

$33.66

PnL

+$13.28

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

RN1<$100

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

averagejoetraders<$100

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

708-556 (1264)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Georgetown Hoyas

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.01

Record

11-422 (433)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Delaware State Hornets

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgetown Hoyas at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Georgetown Hoyas

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Georgetown Hoyas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDelaware State Hornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedGeorgetown Hoyas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgetown Hoyas 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgetown Hoyas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.6%

93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.