Elon Phoenix vs. George Washington Revolutionaries

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold George Washington Revolutionaries (50%) · George Washington Revolutionaries at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Elon Phoenix5¢George Washington Revolutionaries95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

George Washington Revolutionaries

Consensus Traders

George Washington Revolutionaries 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$30.46

Smart Money Entry

90.9¢ → 95.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorge Washington Revolutionaries at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

George Washington Revolutionaries

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Elon Phoenix5%

George Washington Revolutionaries96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

George Washington Revolutionaries4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$52.6

Elon Phoenix4 traders

Total Value$246.26

Total Shares1,781

Combined PnL+$83.06

George Washington Revolutionaries — 50%Elon Phoenix — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on George Washington Revolutionaries. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Elon Phoenix) and the top 1000 (8 on George Washington Revolutionaries) disagree here.

ctrElon Phoenix 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedElon Phoenix 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000George Washington Revolutionaries 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	George Washington Revolutionariesavg 90.9¢	$1.0K	$974.97	-$51.78	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Elon Phoenixavg 9¢	$144.09	$224.14	+$80.05	48% 190-206 (396)
0xheavy888<$100	George Washington Revolutionariesavg 90¢	$45	$45	+$0	55% 119-96 (215)
PA Pan9X<$100	George Washington Revolutionariesavg 90¢	$14.89	$14.53	-$0.37	49% 443-470 (913)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Elon Phoenixavg 14¢	$14.05	$11.04	-$3.01	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	George Washington Revolutionariesavg 90.5¢	$9.05	$8.6	-$0.45	26% 180-518 (698)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Elon Phoenixavg 6¢	$2.88	$6.72	+$3.84	11% 24-189 (213)
RN1CTR<$100	Elon Phoenixavg 7¢	$2.18	$4.37	+$2.18	58% 3802-2782 (6584)

HomeRunHazard

George Washington Revolutionaries

Invested

$1,026.75

Value

$974.97

PnL

-$51.78

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

SnakeBallCTR

Elon Phoenix

Invested

$144.09

Value

$224.14

PnL

+$80.05

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0xheavy888<$100

George Washington Revolutionaries

Invested

$45

Value

$45

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

Pan9X<$100

George Washington Revolutionaries

Invested

$14.89

Value

$14.53

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Elon Phoenix

Invested

$14.05

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$3.01

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

ameisgoat11<$100

George Washington Revolutionaries

Invested

$9.05

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Elon Phoenix

Invested

$2.88

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$3.84

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

RN1CTR<$100

Elon Phoenix

Invested

$2.18

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$2.18

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Research grade

AvoidGeorge Washington Revolutionaries at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

George Washington Revolutionaries

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on George Washington Revolutionaries. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Elon Phoenix) and the top 1000 (8 on George Washington Revolutionaries) disagree here.

ctrElon Phoenix 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedElon Phoenix 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000George Washington Revolutionaries 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that George Washington Revolutionaries wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.