Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arizona Wildcats, while the market favors Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (87%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-36.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Arizona Wildcats (67%) · Arizona Wildcats at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Arizona Wildcats14¢Northern Arizona Lumberjacks86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Arizona Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Arizona Wildcats 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$45.92

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 13.5¢

-71% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arizona Wildcats14%

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona Wildcats6 traders

Total Value$722.53

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$45.42

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks3 traders

Total Value$128.8

Total Shares238

Combined PnL+$0.5

Arizona Wildcats — 67%Northern Arizona Lumberjacks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthern Arizona Lumberjacks 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 52.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.4	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
└ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks leg	Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 52.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.31
└ Arizona Wildcats leg	Arizona Wildcatsavg 46.5¢	$300.04	$303.13	+$3.09
BA BayupatiCTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 47¢	$259.79	$287.43	+$27.64	7% 10-124 (134)
0xheavy888CTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 49¢	$163.17	$173.16	+$9.99	55% 120-99 (219)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 53¢	$118.25	$118.25	+$0	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 46.5¢	$105.58	$106.69	+$1.11	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189CTR	Arizona Wildcatsavg 46.5¢	$104.97	$106.19	+$1.22	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 47¢	$33.84	$37.44	+$3.6	3% 7-227 (234)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Arizona Wildcatsavg 39.5¢	$9.76	$11.62	+$1.86	49% 450-474 (924)
SE sentrio<$100	Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.3	+$0.1	35% 266-490 (756)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Northern Arizona Lumberjacksavg 49¢	$4.85	$5.25	+$0.4	26% 185-522 (707)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Invested

$1,453.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.4

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Both legs:

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks$1,153.4452.4¢+$12.31

Arizona Wildcats$300.0446.5¢+$3.09

BayupatiCTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$259.79

Value

$287.43

PnL

+$27.64

Record

10-124 (134)

0xheavy888CTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$163.17

Value

$173.16

PnL

+$9.99

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Invested

$118.25

Value

$118.25

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

FlaznorpCTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$105.58

Value

$106.69

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189CTR

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$104.97

Value

$106.19

PnL

+$1.22

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$33.84

Value

$37.44

PnL

+$3.6

Record

7-227 (234)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Arizona Wildcats

Invested

$9.76

Value

$11.62

PnL

+$1.86

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

sentrio<$100

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

ameisgoat11<$100

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.4

Record

26%

185-522 (707)

Research grade

AvoidArizona Wildcats at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Arizona Wildcats

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Arizona Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorthern Arizona Lumberjacks 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona Wildcats 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arizona Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.