Pepperdine Waves vs. Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston Bearkats (56%) · Sam Houston Bearkats at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Pepperdine Waves36¢Sam Houston Bearkats64¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sam Houston Bearkats

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston Bearkats 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$178.24

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 64.5¢

+48% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston Bearkats at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pepperdine Waves36%

Sam Houston Bearkats65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sam Houston Bearkats5 traders

Total Value$918.39

Total Shares1,585

Combined PnL+$196.83

Pepperdine Waves4 traders

Total Value$442.93

Total Shares779

Combined PnL-$18.59

Sam Houston Bearkats — 56%Pepperdine Waves — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 45¢	$531.28	$748.59	+$217.31	47% 299-342 (641)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.5¢	$793.94	$572.55	-$194.07	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Pepperdine Waves leg	Pepperdine Wavesavg 53.5¢	$626.91	$415.91	-$225.46
└ Sam Houston Bearkats leg	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 51.6¢	$125.25	$156.64	+$31.39
0xheavy888CTR	Pepperdine Wavesavg 58¢	$355.04	$348.92	-$6.12	55% 205-165 (370)
VE Venusian	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 36.3¢	$132.76	$111.46	-$21.3	31% 410-923 (1333)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 31¢	$93.04	$108.06	+$60.56	31% 412-918 (1330)
└ Sam Houston Bearkats leg	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 31¢	$26.66	$55.47	+$28.81
└ Pepperdine Waves leg	Pepperdine Wavesavg 31¢	$45.92	$52.59	+$31.75
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 55.9¢	$58.73	$59.88	+$1.15	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
RN1<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 62¢	$41.65	$41.99	+$0.34	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 69¢	$34.5	$22.26	-$11.24	43% 125-165 (290)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pepperdine Wavesavg 69¢	$15.42	$11.87	-$2.38	49% 692-733 (1425)
38 38791873984189<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 48¢	$9.66	$9.15	-$0.51	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Sam Houston Bearkatsavg 31¢	$6.2	$7.2	+$1	64% 279-159 (438)

SnakeBall

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$531.28

Value

$748.59

PnL

+$217.31

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$793.94

Value

$572.55

PnL

-$194.07

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Pepperdine Waves$626.9153.5¢-$225.46

Sam Houston Bearkats$125.2551.6¢+$31.39

0xheavy888CTR

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$355.04

Value

$348.92

PnL

-$6.12

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

Venusian

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$132.76

Value

$111.46

PnL

-$21.3

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$93.04

Value

$108.06

PnL

+$60.56

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Both legs:

Sam Houston Bearkats$26.6631¢+$28.81

Pepperdine Waves$45.9231¢+$31.75

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$58.73

Value

$59.88

PnL

+$1.15

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

RN1<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$41.65

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$34.5

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$11.24

Record

43%

125-165 (290)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pepperdine Waves

Invested

$15.42

Value

$11.87

PnL

-$2.38

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

38791873984189<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$9.66

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$0.51

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

suitcase6628<$100

Sam Houston Bearkats

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$1

Record

64%

279-159 (438)

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston Bearkats at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston Bearkats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston Bearkats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.