UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (67%) · Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
9
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 67%
$1.4K
-$193.44
88.8¢ → 72.5¢
-18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawaii Rainbow Warriors at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A4 0xa466...1c77 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 92.4¢ | $955.74 | $809.1 | -$146.64 | — |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 83.9¢ | $405.11 | $371.91 | -$33.2 | 53% 3778-3377 (7155) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 89.6¢ | $76.73 | $70.65 | -$6.09 | 46% 2028-2381 (4409) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 27.1¢ | $59.92 | $60.86 | +$0.94 | 53% 70249-61821 (132070) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 77¢ | $61.56 | $57.96 | -$3.6 | 53% 6645-5939 (12584) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 82.3¢ | $24.7 | $21.75 | -$2.95 | 52% 27288-24794 (52082) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 79.3¢ | $15.85 | $14.5 | -$1.35 | 52% 9525-8636 (18161) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 21.8¢ | $1.1 | $1.16 | +$0.06 | 49% 2223-2352 (4575) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | UT Arlington Mavericksavg 10.4¢ | $8.67 | $0.23 | -$0.61 | 56% 10315-8130 (18445) |
Invested
$955.74
Value
$809.1
PnL
-$146.64
Record
—
Invested
$405.11
Value
$371.91
PnL
-$33.2
Record
53%
3778-3377 (7155)
Invested
$76.73
Value
$70.65
PnL
-$6.09
Record
46%
2028-2381 (4409)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$59.92
Value
$60.86
PnL
+$0.94
Record
53%
70249-61821 (132070)
Invested
$61.56
Value
$57.96
PnL
-$3.6
Record
53%
6645-5939 (12584)
Invested
$24.7
Value
$21.75
PnL
-$2.95
Record
52%
27288-24794 (52082)
Invested
$15.85
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$1.35
Record
52%
9525-8636 (18161)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.16
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
2223-2352 (4575)
Invested
$8.67
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$0.61
Record
56%
10315-8130 (18445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xa466...1c77
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $809.1
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $371.91
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $70.65
RN1
CTRUT Arlington Mavericks — $60.86
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $57.96
Pan9X
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $21.75
ameisgoat11
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — $14.5
Limousin
CTRUT Arlington Mavericks — $1.16
User7429
CTRUT Arlington Mavericks — $0.23