Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs. IU Indy Jaguars

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold IU Indy Jaguars (63%) · IU Indy Jaguars at 68¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles33¢IU Indy Jaguars67¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

IU Indy Jaguars

Consensus Traders

IU Indy Jaguars 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$193

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 67.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidIU Indy Jaguars at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

IU Indy Jaguars

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles33%

IU Indy Jaguars68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

IU Indy Jaguars5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,667

Combined PnL-$26.59

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles3 traders

Total Value$927.54

Total Shares2,911

Combined PnL+$219.59

IU Indy Jaguars — 63%Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 74.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$69.87	46% 292-339 (631)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 24.2¢	$640.19	$861.02	+$220.84	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72¢	$646.31	$687.51	+$41.2	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72¢	$504	$535.5	+$31.5
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 22¢	$142.31	$152.01	+$9.7
RN1	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 75¢	$607.35	$619.7	+$12.34	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.6¢	$408.67	$460.62	+$51.95	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.6¢	$258.17	$236.53	-$21.64
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 22.5¢	$150.51	$224.09	+$73.58
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 66¢	$376.58	$400.35	+$23.77	55% 718-583 (1301)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 70.6¢	$259.13	$223.87	+$12.67	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 70.6¢	$177.22	$166.92	-$6.15
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 22.4¢	$38.13	$56.95	+$18.82
TH thirdt1me	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.2¢	$180.5	$72.12	+$1.43	43% 123-163 (286)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 26¢	$66.38	$65.1	-$1.28	31% 405-886 (1291)
PA Pan9X<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 71.9¢	$84.91	$55.64	+$5.75	49% 684-724 (1408)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.41	+$0.03	57% 3226-2432 (5658)

SnakeBall

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$1,700.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$69.87

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

FlaznorpCTR

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$640.19

Value

$861.02

PnL

+$220.84

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

cigarettesARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$646.31

Value

$687.51

PnL

+$41.2

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$50472¢+$31.5

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$142.3122¢+$9.7

RN1

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$607.35

Value

$619.7

PnL

+$12.34

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$408.67

Value

$460.62

PnL

+$51.95

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$258.1772.6¢-$21.64

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$150.5122.5¢+$73.58

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$376.58

Value

$400.35

PnL

+$23.77

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

38791873984189ARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$259.13

Value

$223.87

PnL

+$12.67

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$177.2270.6¢-$6.15

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$38.1322.4¢+$18.82

thirdt1me

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$180.5

Value

$72.12

PnL

+$1.43

Record

43%

123-163 (286)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$66.38

Value

$65.1

PnL

-$1.28

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

Pan9X<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$84.91

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$5.75

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Research grade

AvoidIU Indy Jaguars at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

IU Indy Jaguars

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that IU Indy Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.