Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles: O/U 161.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$8.49

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 92¢

+65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$661.19

Total Shares1,072

Combined PnL+$36.65

Under3 traders

Total Value$337.97

Total Shares786

Combined PnL-$28.16

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IC ic4cream	Overavg 53¢	$500.85	$538.7	+$37.85	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$345.83	$406.5	+$60.67	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$178.8	$259.71	+$80.91
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.5¢	$167.03	$146.79	-$20.24
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$309.68	$286.37	-$23.31	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 73¢	$55.26	$69.65	+$14.38	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$54.05	$49.45	-$4.6	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 92¢	$58.24	$40.62	-$17.62	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
RN1<$100	Overavg 74¢	$7.54	$9.38	+$1.83	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.85	+$0.2	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.15	-$0.25	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$500.85

Value

$538.7

PnL

+$37.85

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$345.83

Value

$406.5

PnL

+$60.67

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Both legs:

Over$178.854¢+$80.91

Under$167.0324.5¢-$20.24

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$309.68

Value

$286.37

PnL

-$23.31

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$55.26

Value

$69.65

PnL

+$14.38

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.05

Value

$49.45

PnL

-$4.6

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$58.24

Value

$40.62

PnL

-$17.62

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$7.54

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$1.83

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.