Utebo FC vs. CE Sabadell FC: O/U 1.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 56¢ · $890 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 67%
$890.4
-$341.61
55¢ → 56.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Underavg 50.9¢ | $498.34 | $460 | -$38.34 | 47% 11082-12418 (23500) |
VE Venusian | Overavg 51.2¢ | $173.08 | $101.46 | -$71.61 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 69.5¢ | $230.65 | $99.51 | -$131.14 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
LI LightParadox | Overavg 49.1¢ | $162.7 | $99.5 | -$63.2 | 52% 1149-1045 (2194) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 48.9¢ | $124.22 | $76.28 | -$47.94 | 54% 1193-1031 (2224) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $31 | $44.65 | +$15.15 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 48.2¢ | $6.27 | $3.9 | -$2.37 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.72 | $2.7 | +$0.98 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 69.1¢ | $5.53 | $2.4 | -$3.13 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
Invested
$498.34
Value
$460
PnL
-$38.34
Record
47%
11082-12418 (23500)
Invested
$173.08
Value
$101.46
PnL
-$71.61
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
Invested
$230.65
Value
$99.51
PnL
-$131.14
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$162.7
Value
$99.5
PnL
-$63.2
Record
52%
1149-1045 (2194)
Invested
$124.22
Value
$76.28
PnL
-$47.94
Record
54%
1193-1031 (2224)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$31
Value
$44.65
PnL
+$15.15
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$2.37
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$1.72
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.98
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$3.13
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.