Will Utebo FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$27.75

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 84.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL+$37.05

Yes4 traders

Total Value$226.02

Total Shares1,739

Combined PnL-$9.29

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 86.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$27	53% 58869-51174 (110043)
SE sentrio	Noavg 86¢	$365.75	$374.25	+$4.25	50% 25211-24910 (50121)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13.8¢	$190.96	$186.82	-$4.14	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 85¢	$170	$170	+$0	50% 35553-35054 (70607)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 86¢	$28.14	$96.72	+$4.48	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 86¢	$41.28	$42.24	+$0.96	48% 7235-7707 (14942)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$36.48	$36.02	+$0.36	51% 7315-7060 (14375)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$36.89	$34.25	-$5.27	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.97	$3.22	+$0.25	57% 11829-8912 (20741)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.73	$1.73	-$0.13	48% 6134-6542 (12676)

RN1

Invested

$1,293

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$27

Record

53%

58869-51174 (110043)

sentrio

Invested

$365.75

Value

$374.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

50%

25211-24910 (50121)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.96

Value

$186.82

PnL

-$4.14

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

SnakeBall

Invested

$170

Value

$170

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

35553-35054 (70607)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$28.14

Value

$96.72

PnL

+$4.48

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$41.28

Value

$42.24

PnL

+$0.96

Record

48%

7235-7707 (14942)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$36.48

Value

$36.02

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

7315-7060 (14375)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.89

Value

$34.25

PnL

-$5.27

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.22

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

11829-8912 (20741)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.