Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buffalo, while the market favors Ball State (71%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Buffalo (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Buffalo (78%) · Buffalo at 29¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Buffalo29¢Ball State71¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Buffalo

Consensus Traders

Buffalo 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$229.04

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 29¢

-37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBuffalo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Buffalo29%

Ball State71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buffalo7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,332

Combined PnL-$18.09

Ball State2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,767

Combined PnL+$247.13

Buffalo — 78%Ball State — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buffalo 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Buffaloavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$107.38	48% 536-588 (1124)
PR primm	Ball Stateavg 57.6¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$237.21	61% 870-566 (1436)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buffaloavg 47.6¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	+$51.04	52% 497-452 (949)
RN1CTR	Buffaloavg 42.5¢	$652.8	$637.44	-$15.36	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Ball Stateavg 51¢	$505.9	$515.82	+$9.92	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
38 38791873984189CTR	Buffaloavg 47.5¢	$514.29	$368.59	-$101.46	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$182	$176.75	-$5.25
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 48¢	$168	$173.25	+$5.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$350	$350	+$0	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$182	$176.75	-$5.25
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 48¢	$168	$173.25	+$5.25
65 6512395314597884CTR	Buffaloavg 39.4¢	$163.97	$112.51	-$51.47	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Ball Stateavg 64¢	$78.57	$73.97	-$4.6	55% 719-584 (1303)
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 64¢	$53.76	$52.92	-$0.84
└ Buffalo leg	Buffaloavg 43.6¢	$24.81	$21.05	-$3.76
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 48¢	$41.13	$10.98	-$8.3	49% 692-733 (1425)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Buffaloavg 48¢	$2.63	$2.71	+$0.08	57% 3229-2433 (5662)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Buffalo

Invested

$2,018.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$107.38

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

primm

Ball State

Invested

$1,023.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$237.21

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$2,380

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$51.04

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

RN1CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$652.8

Value

$637.44

PnL

-$15.36

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Ball State

Invested

$505.9

Value

$515.82

PnL

+$9.92

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

38791873984189CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$514.29

Value

$368.59

PnL

-$101.46

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

NM-PARB<$100

Ball State

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Ball State$18252¢-$5.25

Buffalo$16848¢+$5.25

GC-PARB<$100

Ball State

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Ball State$18252¢-$5.25

Buffalo$16848¢+$5.25

6512395314597884CTR

Buffalo

Invested

$163.97

Value

$112.51

PnL

-$51.47

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Ball State

Invested

$78.57

Value

$73.97

PnL

-$4.6

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Both legs:

Ball State$53.7664¢-$0.84

Buffalo$24.8143.6¢-$3.76

Pan9XCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$41.13

Value

$10.98

PnL

-$8.3

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Buffalo

Invested

$2.63

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Research grade

AvoidBuffalo at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Buffalo

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Ball State 71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Buffalo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBuffalo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuffalo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buffalo 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buffalo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.1%

29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$222.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

322.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.