Spread: Bowling Green (-10.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (71%) · Kent State at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green1¢Kent State99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$145.37

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 99¢

+73% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green1%

Kent State99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,525

Combined PnL+$940.16

Bowling Green2 traders

Total Value$25.58

Total Shares2,302

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Kent State — 71%Bowling Green — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Kent Stateavg 50.1¢	$1.3K	$2.5K	+$1.2K	61% 855-553 (1408)
RN1ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$270.29	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$375.84	$587.25	+$211.41
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$945.47	$463.78	-$481.7
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kent Stateavg 82.3¢	$671.33	$388.33	-$283	56% 502-393 (895)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50.8¢	$156.61	$159.47	+$2.86	49% 446-472 (918)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 50.8¢	$116.77	$119.63	+$2.86
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$39.84	$39.84	-$0
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 22.7¢	$165.34	$111.53	+$170.31	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 22.7¢	$34.27	$78.41	+$170.31
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$33.12	$33.12	+$0
BI biying88888<$100	Kent Stateavg 49.5¢	$99	$83	-$16	27% 63-170 (233)
CM cm2897CTR	Bowling Greenavg 49.4¢	$731.02	$14.05	-$716.97	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Bowling Greenavg 46.1¢	$380.09	$11.53	-$368.56	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
SH shiifoo<$100	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$10.08	$8.92	-$1.15	63% 1314-788 (2102)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Kent Stateavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.1	30% 134-317 (451)

primm

Kent State

Invested

$1,267.45

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

RN1ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,321.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$270.29

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Kent State$375.8448¢+$211.41

Bowling Green$945.4751¢-$481.7

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kent State

Invested

$671.33

Value

$388.33

PnL

-$283

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Pan9XARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$156.61

Value

$159.47

PnL

+$2.86

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$116.7750.8¢+$2.86

Kent State$39.8448¢-$0

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$165.34

Value

$111.53

PnL

+$170.31

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$34.2722.7¢+$170.31

Kent State$33.1248¢+$0

biying88888<$100

Kent State

Invested

$99

Value

$83

PnL

-$16

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

cm2897CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$731.02

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$716.97

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

6512395314597884CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$380.09

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$368.56

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

shiifoo<$100

Kent State

Invested

$10.08

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$1.15

Record

63%

1314-788 (2102)

justaluckydude<$100

Kent State

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.