Spread: Bowling Green (-6.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (22%) · Kent State at 59¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green42¢Kent State58¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

-$428.44

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 58.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green42%

Kent State59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State2 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares11,533

Combined PnL+$490.98

Bowling Green7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares12,352

Combined PnL-$919.42

Kent State — 22%Bowling Green — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Kent Stateavg 54.1¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$497.98	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
PR primmCTR	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$5.0K	$4.1K	-$869.56	61% 855-553 (1408)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 55.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.95	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 55.4¢	$677.32	$714.81	+$37.41
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 45¢	$382.31	$352.85	-$29.47
betdgeCTR	Bowling Greenavg 38¢	$222.3	$242.77	+$20.47	45% 19-23 (42)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$184	$152	-$32	10% 88-785 (873)
65 6512395314597884	Kent Stateavg 62¢	$124	$117	-$7	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Bowling Greenavg 45¢	$127.16	$107.38	-$19.78	— 3-6 (9)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$86.7	$71.62	-$15.08	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 44.4¢	$39.62	$17.38	-$3.24	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 45¢	$4.07	$1.52	-$0.23	54% 383-322 (705)

HomeRunHazard

Kent State

Invested

$6,385.56

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$497.98

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

primmCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$869.56

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$1,069.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.95

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Kent State$677.3255.4¢+$37.41

Bowling Green$382.3145¢-$29.47

betdgeCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$222.3

Value

$242.77

PnL

+$20.47

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$184

Value

$152

PnL

-$32

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

6512395314597884

Kent State

Invested

$124

Value

$117

PnL

-$7

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$127.16

Value

$107.38

PnL

-$19.78

Record

—

3-6 (9)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$86.7

Value

$71.62

PnL

-$15.08

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$39.62

Value

$17.38

PnL

-$3.24

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$4.07

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.