Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (98%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Ohio (-10.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (45%) · Ohio at 2.0¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Ohio2¢Miami (OH)98¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$4.67

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 2¢

-96% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ohio2%

Miami (OH)98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,290

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Ohio5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,347

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Miami (OH) — 55%Ohio — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	Miami (OH)avg 57¢	$1.8K	$2.8K	+$996.07	0% 0-48 (48)
RN1CTR	Ohioavg 56¢	$942.69	$941.54	-$1.15	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
BI biying88888	Miami (OH)avg 43¢	$384.42	$872.1	+$487.68	27% 63-170 (233)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Ohioavg 43¢	$1.1K	$406.68	-$685.57	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Ohioavg 43¢	$419.56	$315.07	-$60.2	48% 969-1052 (2021)
└ Miami (OH) leg	Miami (OH)avg 58.1¢	$168.8	$244.03	+$59.68
└ Ohio leg	Ohioavg 43¢	$190.92	$71.04	-$119.88
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ohioavg 46.7¢	$339.83	$302.61	-$37.23	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
PA Pan9X	Miami (OH)avg 89.3¢	$167.26	$148.69	+$7.51	49% 450-474 (924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Ohioavg 23¢	$52.85	$45.96	-$6.89	29% 307-750 (1057)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Miami (OH)avg 63.7¢	$31.65	$41.72	+$10.07	56% 504-395 (899)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Ohioavg 67¢	$808.69	$28.36	-$780.33	62% 1003-623 (1626)
CM cm2897<$100	Miami (OH)avg 80¢	$21.6	$26.61	+$5.01	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 77¢	$4.06	$4.22	+$0.16	54% 401-336 (737)

metski29

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,802.42

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$996.07

Record

0-48 (48)

RN1CTR

Ohio

Invested

$942.69

Value

$941.54

PnL

-$1.15

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

biying88888

Miami (OH)

Invested

$384.42

Value

$872.1

PnL

+$487.68

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Ohio

Invested

$1,092.26

Value

$406.68

PnL

-$685.57

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Ohio

Invested

$419.56

Value

$315.07

PnL

-$60.2

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Both legs:

Miami (OH)$168.858.1¢+$59.68

Ohio$190.9243¢-$119.88

6512395314597884CTR

Ohio

Invested

$339.83

Value

$302.61

PnL

-$37.23

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Pan9X

Miami (OH)

Invested

$167.26

Value

$148.69

PnL

+$7.51

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$52.85

Value

$45.96

PnL

-$6.89

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$31.65

Value

$41.72

PnL

+$10.07

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Ohio

Invested

$808.69

Value

$28.36

PnL

-$780.33

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

cm2897<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$21.6

Value

$26.61

PnL

+$5.01

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$4.06

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.