Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (77%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Ohio (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (50%) · Ohio at 23¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 11

Ohio23¢Miami (OH)77¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 50%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$531.06

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 23¢

-59% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ohio23%

Miami (OH)77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (OH)5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,819

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Ohio5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,467

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Miami (OH) — 50%Ohio — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Miami (OH)avg 43.2¢	$2.9K	$3.5K	+$607.32	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
JO JokerTheClownCTR	Ohioavg 56.8¢	$3.4K	$1.7K	$-1.7K	0% 0-188 (188)
CM cm2897	Miami (OH)avg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$455.48	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Miami (OH)avg 44¢	$220	$287.5	+$67.5	56% 504-395 (899)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ohioavg 48¢	$195.02	$153.23	-$41.79	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
38 38791873984189	Miami (OH)avg 43¢	$130.72	$68.27	+$38.91	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Ohioavg 48¢	$65.45	$44.28	+$8.47	49% 450-474 (924)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Ohioavg 41¢	$6.56	$7.68	+$1.12	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
GH ghorrock<$100	Miami (OH)avg 57¢	$7.66	$6.99	-$0.67	54% 401-336 (737)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Ohioavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.13	-$0.73	62% 2365-1458 (3823)

RN1

Miami (OH)

Invested

$2,939

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$607.32

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

JokerTheClownCTR

Ohio

Invested

$3,406.67

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

0-188 (188)

cm2897

Miami (OH)

Invested

$1,116.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$455.48

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Miami (OH)

Invested

$220

Value

$287.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

6512395314597884CTR

Ohio

Invested

$195.02

Value

$153.23

PnL

-$41.79

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

38791873984189

Miami (OH)

Invested

$130.72

Value

$68.27

PnL

+$38.91

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$65.45

Value

$44.28

PnL

+$8.47

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$6.56

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$1.12

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

ghorrock<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$7.66

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Ohio

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.73

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

Research grade

AvoidOhio at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.