Consensus PnL $153K · win rate 78% (2337–671, n=3008) · PM monthly #313 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$153.2K
Record
2337W / 671L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 3008 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#511
Source
PM monthly #313
Record (90 d)
588/791 · 74%
Trades
2,001
Markets
7,132
Volume
$710.4K
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Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $23K · now 99¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (67% of 199)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (69% of 149)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $14K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (72% of 234)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $5.3K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (59% of 152)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?No $148 · now 79¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (33% of 22)
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?No $94 · now 65¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (42% of 29)
- Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?No $18 · now 72¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
Specialties
613 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 59¢- Weather
+24 pts
side won 87% of 368 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +19%
- Esports
+34 pts
side won 83% of 23 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +14%
- Elections
+25 pts
side won 96% of 28 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +29%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 40% of 102 at an average 40¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 38% of 85)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 68% of 115)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 85% of 171)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 97% of 242)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.