Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Kansas (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Kansas (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (60%) · UCF at 48¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Kansas53¢UCF47¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCF

Consensus Traders

UCF 60%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$223.25

Smart Money Entry

43.1¢ → 47.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kansas53%

UCF48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,549

Combined PnL+$274.21

Kansas4 traders

Total Value$632.3

Total Shares1,204

Combined PnL-$50.96

UCF — 60%Kansas — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	UCFavg 40¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$349.37	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kansasavg 59.7¢	$654.51	$575.6	-$78.91	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888CTR	UCFavg 45.4¢	$224.95	$235.33	+$10.39	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UCFavg 76¢	$152	$95	-$57	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
PA Pan9XCTR	UCFavg 73.1¢	$185.58	$60.84	-$26.75	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VI vibing123<$100	Kansasavg 25.6¢	$25.05	$51.45	+$26.4	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
RN1CTR<$100	UCFavg 75¢	$5.49	$3.48	-$2.01	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	UCFavg 44¢	$2.64	$2.85	+$0.21	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
38 38791873984189<$100	Kansasavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.02	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Kansasavg 22¢	$1.1	$2.63	+$1.53	56% 8738-6795 (15533)

primmCTR

UCF

Invested

$1,548.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$349.37

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

HomeRunHazard

Kansas

Invested

$654.51

Value

$575.6

PnL

-$78.91

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888CTR

UCF

Invested

$224.95

Value

$235.33

PnL

+$10.39

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

6512395314597884CTR

UCF

Invested

$152

Value

$95

PnL

-$57

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

Pan9XCTR

UCF

Invested

$185.58

Value

$60.84

PnL

-$26.75

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

vibing123<$100

Kansas

Invested

$25.05

Value

$51.45

PnL

+$26.4

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

RN1CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$5.49

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$2.01

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

38791873984189<$100

Kansas

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Kansas

Invested

$1.1

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$1.53

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Kansas 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.