Spread: Toledo (-13.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (50%) · Toledo at 54¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo54¢UMass46¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

$95.79

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Toledo54%

UMass47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,790

Combined PnL+$143.46

UMass4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,764

Combined PnL-$47.68

Toledo — 50%UMass — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Toledoavg 52¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$136.3	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
PR primmCTR	UMassavg 48¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$52.08	61% 870-566 (1436)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	UMassavg 46.8¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$8.71	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 46.8¢	$885.78	$880.58	-$5.2
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 52¢	$360.48	$370.84	+$13.92
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Toledoavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.7	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Toledoavg 54¢	$440	$435.93	-$4.07	15% 148-841 (989)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UMassavg 44.2¢	$97.84	$101.92	+$4.08	46% 292-339 (631)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	UMassavg 46¢	$41.86	$41.86	+$0	48% 536-588 (1124)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UMassavg 47¢	$49.25	$21.62	+$0.33	49% 684-724 (1408)
GH ghorrock<$100	Toledoavg 52¢	$12.9	$13.44	+$0.54	55% 658-540 (1198)

HomeRunHazard

Toledo

Invested

$4,953.06

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$136.3

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

primmCTR

UMass

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$52.08

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

38791873984189ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$1,432.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.71

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

UMass$885.7846.8¢-$5.2

Toledo$360.4852¢+$13.92

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Toledo

Invested

$1,134.51

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.7

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Toledo

Invested

$440

Value

$435.93

PnL

-$4.07

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

SnakeBallCTR

UMass

Invested

$97.84

Value

$101.92

PnL

+$4.08

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$41.86

Value

$41.86

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

536-588 (1124)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$49.25

Value

$21.62

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

ghorrock<$100

Toledo

Invested

$12.9

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$0.54

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.