Spread: Toledo (-21.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (18%) · Toledo at 51¢ · $54K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo51¢UMass49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 18%

Total Value

$53.6K

Combined PnL

-$298.93

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 50.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toledo51%

UMass50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo2 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares52,647

Combined PnL$-1.2K

UMass9 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares55,284

Combined PnL+$892.78

Toledo — 18%UMass — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Toledoavg 52.7¢	$25.0K	$24.0K	$-1.1K	61% 870-566 (1436)
ET ethanazCTR	UMassavg 47¢	$16.7K	$17.6K	+$890.65	46% 382-450 (832)
RN1CTR	UMassavg 48.6¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$80.35	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
VI vibing123	Toledoavg 53.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$129.55	63% 1099-655 (1754)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	UMassavg 47¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$89.31	61% 1010-635 (1645)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UMassavg 46.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$31.08	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UMassavg 47.9¢	$866.84	$859.22	-$7.61	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
38 38791873984189CTR	UMassavg 45.3¢	$716.56	$612.65	-$45.92	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UMassavg 45.9¢	$511.15	$528.97	+$17.82	55% 719-584 (1303)
PA Pan9XCTR	UMassavg 48.1¢	$159.36	$115.68	-$2.32	49% 692-733 (1425)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	UMassavg 43¢	$3	$3.14	+$0.14	53% 5815-5180 (10995)

primm

Toledo

Invested

$25,019.12

Value

$24.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

ethanazCTR

UMass

Invested

$16,744.22

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$890.65

Record

46%

382-450 (832)

RN1CTR

UMass

Invested

$3,572.4

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$80.35

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

vibing123

Toledo

Invested

$2,785.19

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$129.55

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

UMass

Invested

$2,098.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$89.31

Record

61%

1010-635 (1645)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UMass

Invested

$1,494.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$31.08

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

6512395314597884CTR

UMass

Invested

$866.84

Value

$859.22

PnL

-$7.61

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

38791873984189CTR

UMass

Invested

$716.56

Value

$612.65

PnL

-$45.92

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UMass

Invested

$511.15

Value

$528.97

PnL

+$17.82

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

Pan9XCTR

UMass

Invested

$159.36

Value

$115.68

PnL

-$2.32

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

cigarettesCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.