Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-11-05?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 35¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$49.08

Smart Money Entry

32.6¢ → 34.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,537

Combined PnL+$61.34

Yes2 traders

Total Value$359.57

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$12.27

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 32.5¢	$816.87	$941.99	+$50.13	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 32.5¢	$628.49	$658.47	+$29.98	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
└ No leg	Noavg 32.5¢	$469.83	$498.6	+$28.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65¢	$158.65	$159.87	+$1.22
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 32.5¢	$493.87	$502.68	+$8.81	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 67.3¢	$361.61	$349.42	-$12.19	64% 1960-1090 (3050)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 33.3¢	$112.81	$111.56	-$1.25	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.3¢	$83.06	$82.24	-$0.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68¢	$29.76	$29.32	-$0.44
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 32.3¢	$75.15	$80.32	+$5.16	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$63.78	$61.71	-$2.07	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 34.2¢	$43.34	$41.84	-$1.5	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$37.05	$34.82	-$2.24	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$21.38	$23.52	+$1.78	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 33.5¢	$14.49	$14.91	+$0.42	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$13.18	$14.03	+$0.85	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 67.1¢	$10.17	$10.15	-$0.08	44% 80-103 (183)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$816.87

Value

$941.99

PnL

+$50.13

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$628.49

Value

$658.47

PnL

+$29.98

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

Both legs:

No$469.8332.5¢+$28.76

Yes$158.6565¢+$1.22

GC-PCTR

Invested

$493.87

Value

$502.68

PnL

+$8.81

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$361.61

Value

$349.42

PnL

-$12.19

Record

64%

1960-1090 (3050)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$112.81

Value

$111.56

PnL

-$1.25

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

Both legs:

No$83.0633.3¢-$0.81

Yes$29.7668¢-$0.44

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$75.15

Value

$80.32

PnL

+$5.16

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$63.78

Value

$61.71

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$43.34

Value

$41.84

PnL

-$1.5

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$37.05

Value

$34.82

PnL

-$2.24

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$21.38

Value

$23.52

PnL

+$1.78

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$14.49

Value

$14.91

PnL

+$0.42

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$14.03

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.08

Record

44%

80-103 (183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.