Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Qairat FK, while the market favors Atalanta BC (52%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Qairat FK (29%) · Qairat FK at 49¢ · $786 held · ends Nov 5

Atalanta BC52¢Qairat FK48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Qairat FK

Consensus Traders

Qairat FK 29%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$785.66

Combined PnL

-$17.85

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 48.5¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralQairat FK at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Qairat FK

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Atalanta BC 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Atalanta BC52%

Qairat FK49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Qairat FK2 traders

Total Value$388.08

Total Shares748

Combined PnL-$31.55

Atalanta BC5 traders

Total Value$316.23

Total Shares617

Combined PnL+$13.7

Qairat FK — 29%Atalanta BC — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Qairat FK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Qairat FK) and the top 1000 (6 on Atalanta BC) disagree here.

whaleAtalanta BC 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrQairat FK 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedQairat FK 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Atalanta BC 100% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Qairat FKavg 56.4¢	$410.03	$378.38	-$31.65	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
OM omnibus-076daa	Atalanta BCavg 49.2¢	$244.8	$256.31	+$11.51	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Qairat FKavg 48¢	$77.09	$81.35	+$4.26	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
└ Qairat FK leg	Qairat FKavg 48¢	$50.98	$51.51	+$0.53
└ Atalanta BC leg	Atalanta BCavg 45.1¢	$26.11	$29.84	+$3.73
LI LightParadox<$100	Atalanta BCavg 51.2¢	$25.32	$24.95	-$0.37	52% 1360-1276 (2636)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Atalanta BCavg 47.2¢	$16.74	$17.72	+$0.98	50% 28405-28302 (56707)
VE Venusian<$100	Atalanta BCavg 44.2¢	$9.29	$10.5	+$1.21	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Qairat FKavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.7	+$0.1	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
LI Limousin<$100	Atalanta BCavg 47.2¢	$6.38	$6.75	+$0.37	53% 1404-1252 (2656)

VeryLucky888CTR

Qairat FK

Invested

$410.03

Value

$378.38

PnL

-$31.65

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

omnibus-076daa

Atalanta BC

Invested

$244.8

Value

$256.31

PnL

+$11.51

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Qairat FK

Invested

$77.09

Value

$81.35

PnL

+$4.26

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

Both legs:

Qairat FK$50.9848¢+$0.53

Atalanta BC$26.1145.1¢+$3.73

LightParadox<$100

Atalanta BC

Invested

$25.32

Value

$24.95

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

1360-1276 (2636)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Atalanta BC

Invested

$16.74

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

28405-28302 (56707)

Venusian<$100

Atalanta BC

Invested

$9.29

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$1.21

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

sentrioCTR<$100

Qairat FK

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

Limousin<$100

Atalanta BC

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

1404-1252 (2656)

Research grade

NeutralQairat FK at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Qairat FK

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Atalanta BC 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Qairat FK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Qairat FK) and the top 1000 (6 on Atalanta BC) disagree here.

whaleAtalanta BC 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrQairat FK 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedQairat FK 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Atalanta BC 100% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Qairat FK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.