Will FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes end in a draw?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 100%
$3.3K
$36.52
93.1¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $809.9 | $818.61 | +$8.71 | 64% 9921-5525 (15446) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $716.84 | $724.55 | +$7.71 | 64% 9962-5593 (15555) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93¢ | $500.34 | $508.41 | +$8.07 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 93¢ | $491.57 | $496.86 | +$5.29 | 50% 28410-28315 (56725) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.3¢ | $410.08 | $415.17 | +$5.09 | 51% 37659-36887 (74546) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 94.3¢ | $169.12 | $168.61 | -$0.51 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $49.51 | $49.51 | -$0 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $37.4 | $37.8 | +$0.4 | 55% 9735-8124 (17859) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $35.08 | $35.46 | +$0.19 | 51% 6338-6127 (12465) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $24.72 | $25 | +$0.29 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $10 | $10.16 | +$0.16 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $143.02 | $8.76 | +$1.13 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
Invested
$809.9
Value
$818.61
PnL
+$8.71
Record
64%
9921-5525 (15446)
Invested
$716.84
Value
$724.55
PnL
+$7.71
Record
64%
9962-5593 (15555)
Invested
$500.34
Value
$508.41
PnL
+$8.07
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$491.57
Value
$496.86
PnL
+$5.29
Record
50%
28410-28315 (56725)
Invested
$410.08
Value
$415.17
PnL
+$5.09
Record
51%
37659-36887 (74546)
Invested
$169.12
Value
$168.61
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$49.51
Value
$49.51
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$37.4
Value
$37.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
9735-8124 (17859)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$35.08
Value
$35.46
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
6338-6127 (12465)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.72
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
Invested
$143.02
Value
$8.76
PnL
+$1.13
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.