Will Inter Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-11-05?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$8.6K
-$6.19
97.5¢ → 97.8¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 97.5¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$12.76 | 53% 16777-14914 (31691) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 97.5¢ | $686.46 | $670.67 | +$1.37 | 49% 14681-15372 (30053) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 97.5¢ | $520 | $508.04 | +$1.04 | 50% 28404-28301 (56705) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.4¢ | $449.16 | $438.83 | +$1.27 | 64% 9850-5517 (15367) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $425.71 | $415.92 | +$0.78 | 48% 61012-65825 (126837) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 97.5¢ | $423.26 | $413.53 | +$0.9 | 64% 9882-5579 (15461) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 97¢ | $237.99 | $232.52 | +$1.55 | 51% 25682-24404 (50086) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 97.6¢ | $164.49 | $164.65 | +$0.17 | 50% 25798-25487 (51285) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $165.45 | $138.7 | -$26.74 | 49% 6287-6447 (12734) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $40 | $39.08 | +$0.16 | 58% 46645-33616 (80261) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $22.75 | $23.32 | +$0.57 | 67% 542-266 (808) |
Invested
$5,517.49
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$12.76
Record
53%
16777-14914 (31691)
Invested
$686.46
Value
$670.67
PnL
+$1.37
Record
49%
14681-15372 (30053)
Invested
$520
Value
$508.04
PnL
+$1.04
Record
50%
28404-28301 (56705)
Invested
$449.16
Value
$438.83
PnL
+$1.27
Record
64%
9850-5517 (15367)
Invested
$425.71
Value
$415.92
PnL
+$0.78
Record
48%
61012-65825 (126837)
Invested
$423.26
Value
$413.53
PnL
+$0.9
Record
64%
9882-5579 (15461)
Invested
$237.99
Value
$232.52
PnL
+$1.55
Record
51%
25682-24404 (50086)
Invested
$164.49
Value
$164.65
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
25798-25487 (51285)
Invested
$165.45
Value
$138.7
PnL
-$26.74
Record
49%
6287-6447 (12734)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$40
Value
$39.08
PnL
+$0.16
Record
58%
46645-33616 (80261)
Invested
$22.75
Value
$23.32
PnL
+$0.57
Record
67%
542-266 (808)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.