Getafe CF vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 72¢ · $543 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$542.6
$2.19
72.4¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 72¢ | $295.69 | $293.63 | -$2.05 | 56% 7911-6321 (14232) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 73¢ | $200.7 | $197.93 | +$2.75 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $17.91 | $17.28 | -$0.63 | 50% 1322-1299 (2621) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $10.8 | $10.8 | +$0.08 | 50% 28416-28324 (56740) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $8.11 | $7.69 | -$0.41 | 51% 1376-1340 (2716) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $5.42 | $5.23 | -$0.19 | 52% 1374-1289 (2663) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $5.32 | $5.13 | -$0.19 | 53% 1421-1264 (2685) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 71¢ | $199.62 | $4.54 | +$2.84 | 58% 46675-33635 (80310) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $0.37 | $0.37 | -$0 | 51% 37665-36890 (74555) |
0xheavy888Invested
$295.69
Value
$293.63
PnL
-$2.05
Record
56%
7911-6321 (14232)
Invested
$200.7
Value
$197.93
PnL
+$2.75
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$17.91
Value
$17.28
PnL
-$0.63
Record
50%
1322-1299 (2621)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
28416-28324 (56740)
Invested
$8.11
Value
$7.69
PnL
-$0.41
Record
51%
1376-1340 (2716)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$5.23
PnL
-$0.19
Record
52%
1374-1289 (2663)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
1421-1264 (2685)
VeryLucky888Invested
$199.62
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$2.84
Record
58%
46675-33635 (80310)
Invested
$0.37
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
37665-36890 (74555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.