FC Midtjylland vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to Score

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$22.95

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$786.89

Total Shares1,149

Combined PnL+$5.74

No8 traders

Total Value$627.5

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL-$28.7

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 68¢	$781.15	$786.89	+$5.74	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$186.87	$179.55	-$7.32	51% 1371-1334 (2705)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 31¢	$169	$169	-$0	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 33.1¢	$139.17	$126	-$13.17	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$60.26	$60.95	+$0.68	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$34.17	$34.42	+$0.25
└ No leg	Noavg 30¢	$26.1	$26.53	+$0.43
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$66.18	$60	-$6.18	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 33.1¢	$51.61	$49.06	-$2.54	50% 1313-1295 (2608)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$36.47	$37.05	+$0.59	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$4.6	$4.67	+$0.07	55% 1360-1129 (2489)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$2.3	$2.16	-$0.14	51% 37659-36887 (74546)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$781.15

Value

$786.89

PnL

+$5.74

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$186.87

Value

$179.55

PnL

-$7.32

Record

51%

1371-1334 (2705)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$169

Value

$169

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$139.17

Value

$126

PnL

-$13.17

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.26

Value

$60.95

PnL

+$0.68

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

Both legs:

Yes$34.1769¢+$0.25

No$26.130¢+$0.43

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$66.18

Value

$60

PnL

-$6.18

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$51.61

Value

$49.06

PnL

-$2.54

Record

50%

1313-1295 (2608)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$36.47

Value

$37.05

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

1360-1129 (2489)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.