Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC win on 2026-11-08?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$7.3K
$130.73
77.6¢ → 92.5¢
+19% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$27.09 | 52% 271-247 (518) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 77.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$38.68 | 52% 50-46 (96) |
TH thirdt1me | Noavg 77.1¢ | $985.46 | $1.0K | +$31.02 | 0% 0-36 (36) |
 RN1 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $997.29 | $1.0K | +$10.68 | 54% 248-213 (461) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 77¢ | $691.11 | $710.49 | +$19.38 | 48% 42-46 (88) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 78¢ | $117.79 | $119.3 | +$1.51 | 7% 15-191 (206) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $98.75 | $98.75 | -$0 | 26% 102-296 (398) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $97.07 | $98.31 | +$1.24 | 9% 16-167 (183) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $80.89 | $81.53 | +$0.64 | 27% 100-275 (375) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.55 | $31.95 | +$0.4 | 26% 97-281 (378) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $5.53 | $5.61 | +$0.09 | 50% 76-76 (152) |
Invested
$2,399.42
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$27.09
Record
52%
271-247 (518)
Invested
$1,640.33
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$38.68
Record
52%
50-46 (96)
Invested
$985.46
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$31.02
Record
0%
0-36 (36)
RN1Invested
$997.29
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.68
Record
54%
248-213 (461)
Invested
$691.11
Value
$710.49
PnL
+$19.38
Record
48%
42-46 (88)
Invested
$117.79
Value
$119.3
PnL
+$1.51
Record
7%
15-191 (206)
Invested
$98.75
Value
$98.75
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
102-296 (398)
Invested
$97.07
Value
$98.31
PnL
+$1.24
Record
9%
16-167 (183)
Invested
$80.89
Value
$81.53
PnL
+$0.64
Record
27%
100-275 (375)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$31.95
PnL
+$0.4
Record
26%
97-281 (378)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
76-76 (152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.