Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Uganda Women, while the market favors Rwanda Women (99%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Victoria Women T20I: Uganda Women vs Rwanda Women
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Uganda Women (33%) · Uganda Women at 0.5¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Uganda Women
9
Uganda Women 33%
$5.6K
$368.36
33.2¢ → 0.5¢
-98% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUganda Women at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Rwanda Women 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2CTR | Uganda Womenavg 57¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$125.16 | 46% 108-128 (236) |
PA pagliacci4 | Rwanda Womenavg 99.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$1.42 | 43% 24-32 (56) |
PA pauleta23 | Rwanda Womenavg 68¢ | $401.79 | $587.83 | +$186.04 | 28% 176-464 (640) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Rwanda Womenavg 38¢ | $203.09 | $491.91 | +$288.82 | 28% 149-389 (538) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Uganda Womenavg 8.1¢ | $355.02 | $316.48 | -$38.53 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Rwanda Womenavg 36.7¢ | $100 | $149.75 | +$49.75 | 20% 100-403 (503) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Rwanda Womenavg 48.3¢ | $45.12 | $49.26 | +$4.14 | 53% 1783-1584 (3367) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Rwanda Womenavg 39.6¢ | $8.72 | $15.77 | +$7.05 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Uganda Womenavg 61¢ | $6.71 | $4.4 | -$2.31 | 46% 230-271 (501) |
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$2,523.05
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$125.16
Record
46%
108-128 (236)
Invested
$1,542.9
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$1.42
Record
43%
24-32 (56)
Invested
$401.79
Value
$587.83
PnL
+$186.04
Record
28%
176-464 (640)
Invested
$203.09
Value
$491.91
PnL
+$288.82
Record
28%
149-389 (538)
Invested
$355.02
Value
$316.48
PnL
-$38.53
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$100
Value
$149.75
PnL
+$49.75
Record
20%
100-403 (503)
Invested
$45.12
Value
$49.26
PnL
+$4.14
Record
53%
1783-1584 (3367)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$7.05
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$2.31
Record
46%
230-271 (501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alpheclabs2
CTRUganda Women — $2.4K
pagliacci4
Rwanda Women — $1.5K
pauleta23
Rwanda Women — $587.83
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
Rwanda Women — $491.91
cigarettes
CTRUganda Women — $316.48
ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG
Rwanda Women — $149.75
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Rwanda Women — $49.26
Flaznorp
Rwanda Women — $15.77
lryyy
CTRUganda Women — $4.4