Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold FUT Esports (60%) · FUT Esports at 54¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
FUT Esports
10
FUT Esports 60%
$43.3K
$-1.8K
56.9¢ → 53.5¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralFUT Esports at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on FUT Esports. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlllCTR | Spiritavg 49.5¢ | $14.6K | $13.7K | -$852.16 | 54% 333-281 (614) |
GO Gooooooollllllllll | FUT Esportsavg 59¢ | $8.8K | $8.0K | -$825 | 51% 1381-1348 (2729) |
VI vibing123 | FUT Esportsavg 58¢ | $7.7K | $7.1K | -$595.71 | 51% 1786-1686 (3472) |
JA JabJabichCTR | Spiritavg 41.6¢ | $4.0K | $4.5K | +$470.06 | 62% 253-157 (410) |
 LooksMaxxingx | FUT Esportsavg 53¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$25.01 | 51% 928-877 (1805) |
 Stickman22 | FUT Esportsavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | -$10 | 52% 1888-1767 (3655) |
HU humbleboy | FUT Esportsavg 52¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$55.25 | 54% 550-465 (1015) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Spiritavg 40.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$170.61 | 57% 160-122 (282) |
RA RayayaCTR | Spiritavg 52.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$190.7 | 61% 1253-807 (2060) |
IW iWasEnough | FUT Esportsavg 59¢ | $441.74 | $400.57 | -$41.18 | 51% 12924-12461 (25385) |
Invested
$14,581.47
Value
$13.7K
PnL
-$852.16
Record
54%
333-281 (614)
Invested
$8,850
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$825
Record
51%
1381-1348 (2729)
Invested
$7,742.99
Value
$7.1K
PnL
-$595.71
Record
51%
1786-1686 (3472)
Invested
$4,002.57
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$470.06
Record
62%
253-157 (410)
LooksMaxxingxInvested
$2,649.99
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$25.01
Record
51%
928-877 (1805)
Stickman22Invested
$1,877
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$10
Record
52%
1888-1767 (3655)
Invested
$1,915.33
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$55.25
Record
54%
550-465 (1015)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$1,237.69
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$170.61
Record
57%
160-122 (282)
Invested
$1,585.7
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$190.7
Record
61%
1253-807 (2060)
Invested
$441.74
Value
$400.57
PnL
-$41.18
Record
51%
12924-12461 (25385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
lllllllIlll
CTRSpirit — $13.7K
Gooooooollllllllll
FUT Esports — $8.0K
vibing123
FUT Esports — $7.1K
JabJabich
CTRSpirit — $4.5K
LooksMaxxingx
FUT Esports — $2.7K
Stickman22
FUT Esports — $2.1K
humbleboy
FUT Esports — $2.0K
relativesignificance
CTRSpirit — $1.4K
Rayaya
CTRSpirit — $1.4K
iWasEnough
FUT Esports — $400.57